Friday, May 9, 2008

Climate models miss mark

Armed with newly synthesized logs of Antarctica's temperature over the last century, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that a computer simulation for the same time-period predicted a too-warm continent.

Monaghan found the models consistently predicted that the continent warmed more than it actually did. The tough part is dissecting the model to figure out why. The culprit this time? Water vapor...

[key phrase: 'the culprit this time'. We literally lack the computing power to fully model climate, even if we were smart enough to know how to set the parameters. The fact they learn something ever time they review the models is a) good in itself, that's how science is supposed to work, and b) proof that no one's any business 'predicting' future climate based upon them, to say nothing of spending trillions]

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