Wednesday, January 27, 2010

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Rasmussen Reports Ahead of the Curve on Massachusetts Race

[There's been some left-wing (Daily KoS, etc.) trying to disparage Rasmussen lately because they increasingly don't like what Scott (Rasmussen) & Co. are finding - as often as not directly contradicting what the MSM 'polls' (used very loosely) often 'say'.

There's a reason I'm so comfortable frequently referencing their work: their track record. Again and again Rasmussen's accuracy leading up to elections (not just the last poll prior to; often mickey'd by other outfits to finally represent truth), is consistently the most accurate - only sharing that honor with IBD's polls.

So buy any of the misinformation re: their accuracy - it's sour grapes at best.

To whit: ]


The Washington Post has released an interesting review about the
media coverage of the Massachusetts Senate race.


Rasmussen Reports provided the first news feed suggesting that Democratic candidate Martha Coakley might be in trouble on January 5, two full weeks before the election. In that poll, we showed Coakley’s lead down to single digits and noted that Republican candidate Scott Brown was within two points among those certain to vote. A week later, of course, we showed the race a toss-up with Brown leading among those certain to vote. About that time, Public Policy Polling also released a poll showing the race to be even.



But while Rasmussen Reports was picking up the trend 14 days before the election, The Washington Post says some traditional outlets didn’t report on the possibility of an upset until just two days before the election. Part of the reason is that many of the old media outlets were relying on a Boston Globe survey showing Coakley ahead by 17 points.

While the traditional outlets missed [ignored] the story, the new media picked up on it early. In fact, The Politico credited the Rasmussen Reports release with being the turning point in public perception. Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties … was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” The Politico’s Ben Smith wrote. He added,

“It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”

[And what kicked of the aforementioned liberal-left attack dogs against Rasmussen.

Another liberal belief (Rasmussen's conservative bias) not supported by facts.]


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