Subject: txt grn owg engry -
Recall that the Russian economy imploded in the 1990's, thus reducing the emissions they were spewing into the atmosphere. Now recovered, Valdimir Putin's Russia has amassed a ton of carbon credits and thinks that Russia should still be able to sell them even after Kyoto expires in 2012:
"If other nations don't let Russia keep its emission permits, it could reject any deal. Despite its emissions decline, Russia is still the world's No. 3 emitter and uses a lot of energy for its economic output.
Russia's credits have inhibited the creation of a global carbon cap-and-trade market. People fear Russia could suddenly flood the market with its permits.
A deal with Russia would further expose the enormous hypocrisy at work in Copenhagen. As painful as the emissions targets will be for the west, they will not lead to the reduction of a single, solitary molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere as long as Russia, China, and India refuse to go along and destroy their economies too.
Since those three nations would probably be virtually exempt in any deal on Climate (China has agreed to look at token cuts in emissions), the rationale for any kind of treaty rests on the unbelievable notion that we can ignore the fact that some of the biggest CO2 emitters will not be bound by the same rules as their economic competitors in the west.
This will lead to even bigger balance of trade issues with China as their factories will be able to burn as much coal as they wish with no consequences to their bottom lines. The flood of goods from China will, if anything, become larger.
The delegates who are in Copenhagen to achieve success will do pretty much whatever it takes to realize that goal. Hence, expect this Russian problem to be resolved in Putin's favor...
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