Probability and Global Warming

(1) The planet is getting exponentially warmer. This is only a possibility. So we are talking about a percentage of warming in a possible world -- not necessarily our real world. (No one knows the exact temperature of the real world. In fact, there is no such thing as an exact world temperature. Temperatures vary throughout the planet.)

(2) This warming is caused by man-made releases of CO2. This is also only a possibility. So, we are talking about an approximate amount of CO2 in a possible world -- not the actual amount in our real world. (No one knows the exact amount of CO2 being released in the real world.)

The exact same logic is true for steps 3, 4, and 5. All of the logic is inductive; all of the arguments are based on probability. If the conclusion (#5) is true, all of the previous arguments must also be true.

And, as anyone who studies induction knows: the longer the string of conditionals (steps), the lower the probability that the entire set of conditionals is true... [snip]

(1) The world is getting exponentially warmer. The key word here is exponentially. I didn't say it and I don't believe it -- but proponents of global warming do. Here is their very famous "hockey stick" graph.

But, oops, here is a NASA graph that shows that nothing remotely resembling exponential warming has been going on in at least the last ten years.

Lastly, what is the chance that all of the governments of the world will unite to significantly lower emissions of CO2? A rational person would have to put the probability at close to zero.

If I ran America, I would not bet the future of our economy on the successful outcome the proposed cap and trade legislation. The odds are against it.

[Or, as I've been know to say, we're not just being told that we've 'caught' this problem in the eleventh hour, but the eleventh hour and 59th minute -- BUT, if we spend enough money now-right-now we've still enough time to fix it {four months to be exact, according to UN President Moonbat [sic]}.

It must be divine intervention to have caught this at the last possible instant - I mean, what the odds?

By ANY measure, scientific evidence [historical record vs. 'models'], human behaviors [refuse debate, prosecute 'deniers'], vested interests [100 Trillion $ and the power to control all activity - sweet], or probabilities ['READ MORE'], this is the largest scam, for the largest reward in wealth and power, ever perpetrated in our solar system.

Given these huge payoffs those attempting it will risk much constituent ire to achieve it as, once in place, their energy tyranny will be virtually irreversible {and bear in mind, Waxman-Markey has already passed the House}.

Consequently it's up to us little people to convince our 'representatives' before the die is cast that they will be replaced should they continue to pursue this scam.

Silence will be interpreted as consent, and it will be we little folk who pay most dearly for this insanity should it come to pass.]

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