Vaclav Smil, author of "Energy at the Crossroads"
In 2007, the United States derived about 1.7 percent of its energy from new renewable conversions -- corn-based ethanol, wind, photovoltaic solar and geothermal -- all of them combined. In 2008, coal-fired power plants produced half of all U.S. electricity, nuclear stations 20 percent.
The forecasts and anticipations have failed miserably because their authors and promoters ignored one of the most important realities ruling the behavior of complex energy systems: the inherently slow pace of energy transitions:
• It took oil about 50 years since the beginning of its commercial production to capture 10 percent of the global primary energy market, and then almost exactly 30 years to go to reach 25 percent.
• Analogical spans for natural gas are almost identical: approximately and 50 years and 40 years.
• Nuclear fission reached 10 percent of global electricity generation 27 years after the commissioning of the first nuclear power plant in 1956.
• But coal has reigned supreme since the late 1890s; in 2008, it supplied twice as much energy as it did in 1973.
The historical verdict is unassailable, and barring some extraordinary circumstance, none of the promises for greatly accelerated energy transitions will be realized. We should prepare ourselves for a slow transition.
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