Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The Exquisite Difficulty of Preemption

Ever hear of an obscure German Chancellor by the name of Hitler? Probably not. He ruled for three years in the 1930s until he took an aggressive step too far, marching troops into the Rhineland against treaty commitments. The Wehrmacht was promptly ejected by the French Army, and an appalled and fearful German General Staff liquidated Hitler and called for new elections.

Of course, it didn't work that way.

Herr Hitler was not removed, because the pacific French and British democracies -- knowing only that any action would result in serious bloodshed, but not the then-future of the German Chancellor -- shrank from the challenge and hoped for the best.... [snip]

The past offers certainties, the future only probabilities. But it is probabilities on which humans have to act.

Accordingly, if diplomacy fails and with evidence of a threat as solid as it is with Iran, at the proper time the real statesman will discharge his most fundamental duty: to protect us from harm...

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