No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Past 160 Years

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Most of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity does not remain in the atmosphere, but is instead absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. In fact, only about 45 percent of emitted carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere.

To assess whether the airborne fraction is indeed increasing, Wolfgang Knorr of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol reanalyzed available atmospheric carbon dioxide and emissions data since 1850 and FINDS finds that the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide has not increased either during the past 150 years or during the most recent five decades.

This directly contradicts the majority of climate models that assume that the airborne fraction will increase.

Because understanding of the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide is important for predicting future climate change, it is essential to have accurate knowledge of whether that fraction is changing or will change as emissions increase.

The research is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

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