Monday, October 6, 2008

Was Obama telling the truth about al Qaeda?

During the first Presidential debate in Mississippi Senator Obama claimed that “...al Qaeda is resurgent, stronger now than at any time since 2001.” By what measures has the Senator come to this conclusion? Let's look at this question. [snip]

The 1990's was al Qaeda's peak. Obama's assertion that they are stronger now is pure fantasy. The loss in Iraq has substantially reduced the number of young Muslim men willing to 'go to jihad'. It has handed al Qaeda a political, strategic, and public relations disaster. Former jihadis and even religious leaders in Saudi Arabia now decry al Qaeda. [snip]

According to Strategy Page the Pakistan military is taking the fight to the Taliban in the frontier region. Large Pakistani force has identified Taliban strongholds and is taking them down with air and indirect firepower. The Pakistani military seems to have learned that just sending truck loads of troops in to get captured is a bad idea. Now it is preparing the objectives with overwhelming firepower and following that with overwhelming force. Somebody in Pakistan is learning from the US military. [snip]

The overarching point being that the Al Qaeda is not stronger now by any conceivable measure that Obama could put forward, unless he is simply looking at casualty numbers as the one and only metric. They go up, we are losing, they go down, we a winning. But that's a silly way to measure success in war. In that case, I regret to inform you that the allies lost WWII on D-Day because we suffered over 4,000 KIA on the beaches of France...

[long but provides rational insight into the complex situation that is Pakistan - Recommended > ]

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